Pending Home Sales Up Despite Rising Mortgage Rates

At a Glance:

• During the week of March 15, 2026, weekly pending home sales rose to 71,230, and purchase applications increased by 12% compared to the previous year.¹
• Interest rates for 30-year conforming loans rose to 6.356% on March 20, 2026, the highest level since September 4, 2025, when they were 6.460%.²
• The market yield on a 10-year treasury note reached 4.39% on March 20, 2026, up from 4.08% on February 20, 2026.³
• As of March 14, 2026, the active housing inventory has increased by 5.6% year over year.⁴
• The average list price decreased 2.3% year over year.⁵
• The average age of first-time homebuyers has now reached an all-time high of 40 years.⁶

Spring officially began on March 20, 2026, marking the start of a traditionally active season for prospective buyers and real estate investors. As temperatures warm across much of the country, especially in the West and Midwest, we are also seeing increases in pending home sales and mortgage rates.

During the week of March 15, 2026, there was a noticeable increase in the real estate market, as the number of weekly pending home sales reached a total of 71,230 transactions.⁷ Additionally, purchase applications rose by 12% compared to the same period the previous year.⁸ This uptick in activity occurred alongside a rise in 30-year conforming mortgage rates, which climbed to 6.356% on March 20, 2026.⁹ This marked the highest level since September 4, 2025.¹⁰

Housing demand remains relatively strong.

The conflict in the Middle East, along with rising oil and gas prices and higher mortgage interest rates, has not yet shown any signs of affecting pending home sales. "Despite these economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, the housing market appears to be resilient," said Brett Hively, Senior Vice President, Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank. "Many buyers and real estate investors are continuing to engage in transactions and are showing interest in purchasing homes."

Mortgage rates may remain elevated for an extended period.

Mortgage rates are influenced by the yield on the 10-year treasury note, which reached 4.38% on March 20, 2026, up from 4.08% on February 20, 2026.¹¹ "This correlation suggests that as investors seek higher returns, the cost of borrowing for homebuyers and real estate investors could be impacted," Hively explained. "Elevated mortgage rates may persist as long as these Treasury yields remain elevated."

Active housing inventory increased 5.6% year over year.

As the spring homebuying season approaches, there's some promising news for homebuyers and real estate investors: housing inventory is up 5.6% year-over-year.¹² Hively commented, "With more homes becoming available in many markets across the country, buyers may find it easier to find a property that fits their needs and budget, making this spring an opportune time for those looking to purchase a home."

Hively also highlighted that there has been a decline in the average list price compared to the previous year. "The average list price dropped by 2.3% year over year, which is advantageous to buyers, especially considering the higher mortgage interest rates."¹³

The average age of first-time homebuyers is 40 years.

The journey to homeownership is becoming increasingly challenging for many individuals and families. According to findings from the National Association of REALTORS®, the average age of a first-time homebuyer has reached 40 years, an all-time high.¹⁴ "This shift can be attributed to various factors, such as home prices outpacing wage growth, personal debt burdens, and a lack of affordable starter home inventory," stated Hively. “With Millennials and Gen Z representing the largest population entering prime homebuying years, demographic forces suggest significant pent up demand that could support increased first time purchasing once affordability improves.”

Sources:
^{1, 7, 8} https://www.housingwire.com/articles/housing-demand-still-growing-as-mortgage-rates-reach-inflection-point/
^{2, 9, 10} https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi
^{3, 11} https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
^{4, 5, 12, 13} https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/more-homes-are-for-sale-now-than-in-2025-and-median-list-prices-are-down-2-4-6-pros-on-whether-now-is-the-time-to-buy-d6036d62
^{6, 14} https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/first-time-home-buyer-share-falls-to-historic-low-of-21-median-age-rises-to-40

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.