New Scoring Model Could Expand Mortgage Access for Nearly 5 Million Consumers
At a Glance:
- Expanded access. Effective September 4, 2026, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began accepting VantageScore® 4.0 credit scores from all U.S. mortgage originators, concluding a four-month pilot limited to 50 lenders.¹ ²
- Nearly 5 million potential borrowers. A July 2026 study found that the model could identify nearly 5 million additional mortgage-ready consumers using a 620+ score threshold.³
- Broader data analysis. VantageScore® 4.0 uses trended credit data, alternative data inputs and machine learning to evaluate consumers, including some with limited or inactive credit histories.⁴
- $1 trillion opportunity. The study estimated that the newly identified population could represent approximately $1 trillion in potential mortgage lending without lowering underwriting standards.⁵
On September 4, 2026, the Federal Housing Finance Agency expanded the use of VantageScore® 4.0 by directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept the model from all U.S. mortgage originators. The action ended a limited pilot that began May 1 with 50 participating lenders.¹ ²
In this edition of Ameris Bank’s Mortgage Monitor, we look at how the scoring model works and why its broader availability could create new opportunities for borrowers, real estate professionals and mortgage lenders.
“This development could create opportunities for borrowers who may not have fit neatly into traditional credit scoring models,” said Brett Hively, Senior Vice President and Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank. “While approval is never based on credit score alone, having a more comprehensive view of a consumer’s credit history may help identify qualified borrowers who were previously overlooked.”
A Potential Path for Millions of Previously Overlooked Consumers
The most significant takeaway is the model’s potential to expand the pool of mortgage-ready consumers. Research from OGMA Risk & Analytics found that nearly 5 million additional U.S. consumers could meet a 620+ mortgage score threshold when evaluated with VantageScore® 4.0.³
These consumers include people who are new to credit, have dormant credit files or do not have traditional credit accounts. The study also found that VantageScore® 4.0 can score approximately 33 million more U.S. adults than FICO Classic or FICO 10T. Among roughly 24 million newly scoreable consumers with dormant credit files, 77% ranked as Near Prime or Prime.³
“For real estate professionals, this could mean more potential buyers entering the market over time,” said Hively. “It’s a reminder that consumers who may have been told they didn’t qualify in the past may benefit from revisiting their financing options with a mortgage professional.”
How VantageScore® 4.0 Works
VantageScore® 4.0 was developed by VantageScore, an independent company owned by Equifax®, Experian® and TransUnion®. Like other widely used credit scoring models, it uses a scale of 300 to 850.⁶
The model incorporates trended credit data, which considers how a consumer’s credit behavior changes over time, as well as certain rental, telecom and utility payment information when available. It also uses machine learning to help evaluate consumers with limited or inactive credit histories.⁴
During the May 1 through August 31 pilot, VantageScore® 4.0 was the only credit score used for more than 9% of mortgages securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to Mortgage Professional America.¹
What This Could Mean for the Mortgage Market
The OGMA study estimated that the additional mortgage-ready population identified by VantageScore® 4.0 could represent approximately $1 trillion in potential lending opportunity. The research also reported that newly scoreable consumers showed default behavior comparable to, or better than, traditionally scored borrowers at the same score levels.³ ⁵
“As the industry adopts new tools and technologies, it’s important for consumers and referral partners to understand that mortgage qualification continues to involve much more than a credit score,” said Hively.
For real estate professionals, the broader scoring option may create an opportunity to reconnect with clients who previously believed their credit profile would keep them from pursuing homeownership. A mortgage loan originator can help prospective borrowers review available financing options and understand the documentation, credit and underwriting requirements that may apply.
Important: A credit score is only one part of a mortgage application. Use of VantageScore® 4.0 does not guarantee eligibility, approval, loan terms or a specific interest rate. Program availability and underwriting requirements may vary.
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11 https://www.mpamag.com/us/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/fhfa-opens-vantagescore-40-to-all-gse-lenders-immediately/588772
7 https://vantagescore.com/consumers/blog/the-complete-guide-to-your-vantagescore
9 https://vantagescore.com/insights/vantagescore-4
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.