At a Glance:
- Kevin M. Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting as Chairman of the Central Bank took place June 16-17, 2026.1
- The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged for a fourth-straight meeting, at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.2
- Mortgage rates have remained in their current range following the most recent Federal Reserve meeting.3
- The annual inflation rate in May 2026 was 4.2%, its highest level since April 20234, leading some interest rate traders to speculate about a possible benchmark rate increase in the second half of 2026.
The inaugural meeting of the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin M. Warsh, took place June 16-17, 2026.5 During the meeting, all 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.6 This marks the fourth consecutive Fed meeting during which the rates have remained unchanged.
In this edition of Ameris Bank's Mortgage Monitor, we explain what this decision means for homebuyers, real estate investors, and real estate agents as we move into the second half of the year.
Mortgage Rates Stayed Within Their Current Range
Following the Federal Reserve’s announcement, mortgage rates remained within their recent range. As of June 18, the average rate for a 30-year conventional mortgage was 6.454%7, slightly lower than the previous day and down from levels observed at the same time last year.8
“Mortgage rates have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, even as broader market conditions continue to evolve,” said Brett Hively, Senior Vice President, Mortgage Capital Markets and Financial Strategist at Ameris Bank. “Compared to this time last year, current rate levels may present opportunities for borrowers who have been monitoring market conditions.”
Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Federal Reserve but are influenced by broader financial markets, including Treasury yields and investor expectations related to inflation.
Is A Fed Rate Hike On The Horizon?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, a 4.2% annual inflation rate in May 2026,9 and increasing energy costs are just a few factors that could push benchmark rates higher. While it is difficult to predict the Federal Reserve's actions at its upcoming meeting on July 28-29,10 as of June 29, 2026, nearly one in three interest rate traders believe there will be a rate hike.11
In addition to inflation, market participants are closely monitoring labor market conditions and consumer spending trends, which may further shape expectations for future Federal Reserve policy decisions.
“Markets are paying close attention to inflation and other economic indicators as they evaluate the outlook for monetary policy,” Hively said. “These dynamics can influence interest rate expectations and broader mortgage market activity.”
Strategies For Real Estate Agents
As market conditions evolve, staying informed on key indicators, such as Federal Reserve policy decisions and movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, remains an important part of navigating the mortgage landscape.
Real estate professionals and market participants often monitor these trends to better understand shifts in borrowing costs and overall housing market conditions. Early engagement in the home financing process can also help provide greater clarity around available loan options in a changing rate environment.
“At Ameris Bank, we continue to work closely with clients and business partners to help them stay informed as market conditions evolve,” Hively added.
1, 2, 5, 6 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm
4, 9 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
3, 7, 8 https://www2.optimalblue.com/obmmi
10 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
11 https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Ameris Bank does not endorse nor is affiliated with the companies listed in this article.
